North American Outlook: Eye of the Storm
The North American economy faces a crucial test in coming months as it fends off the mounting impact of past rate hikes and a flurry of smaller headwinds that, combined, could tear up the soft-landing narrative.
Rising oil prices and sticky services inflation risk driving more rate hikes from the Fed and Bank of Canada. While we still lean toward inaction, we also don't see policy reversing gears until 2024Q3, several months later than previously thought.
Sal Guatieri
Director and Senior Economist
