Despite the M&A and IPO markets finding firmer footing, recovery is still uneven. Strategic activity remains robust while healthier equity issuance has created more engaged private equity clients compared to a year ago.

Even with some momentum, getting deals done still depends on scale, capital access and timing. That was the backdrop for the “Strategic Deals, Selective Windows: M&A and IPOs in 2026” panel I joined at the Milken Institute Global Conference. To discuss financing conditions, cross-border activity and alternative pathways for capital formation, I was joined on stage by:

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  Anu Aiyengar, Global Head, Advisory and Mergers & Acquisitions, J.P. Morgan

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  Andrea Guerzoni, Global Vice Chair, EY-Parthenon

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  Leon Kalvaria, Global Chairman, Banking, Citigroup

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  Becky Steinthal, Managing Director and Head, TMT ECM, Jefferies Financial Group

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  Kimberly Petillo-Decossard, Co-head, Global M&A Practice, White & Case LLP (Moderator).

Here are my key takeaways:

In this market, flexibility matters. Windows of opportunity are opening for IPOs, M&A and financing, but they aren’t aligned and they aren’t moving at the same pace. Each market is responding to volatility and geopolitical pressure in its own way. For companies and deal sponsors, the playbook that worked a year ago might not work now. To get the most out of this environment, you need to be prepared to adapt timing, structure and execution as conditions shift.

Cross-border activity shows what that flexibility looks like in practice. Over the past 24 to 36 months, we saw a clear push toward U.S. dollar assets and U.S.-based exposure, driven in part by tariff dynamics and the desire to diversify manufacturing, sourcing and currency exposure. That dynamic has not disappeared, but it is no longer affecting the market as sharply in one direction. What we’re seeing instead is a return to a more global perspective, with companies thinking more broadly about their supply chains, strategic partnerships and long-term exposures.

Scale is one of the clearest dividing lines in today’s market. Large-cap M&A and public-market activity are carrying real momentum, supported by strong interest from corporate and sponsor clients. That strength has not carried over evenly into the smaller and midsize segments. Companies without ready access to capital are finding the financing backdrop and broader geopolitical environment harder to work around than they were a year or two ago. The desire to make a deal is still there but converting that intent into a completed transaction is more challenging today.

The same scale dynamic is playing out in the IPO pipeline. For private equity-backed businesses that have reached a size where M&A is no longer the obvious exit, the IPO channel is a viable path. The headline focus may be on the largest private names, but scaled, higher-quality issuers are also finding more room to move. Our private equity clients are increasingly comfortable with the idea that an IPO does not have to be a full exit on day one. In many cases, it can be the first step in a longer monetization process, with proceeds used to pay down debt and sponsors reducing their positions over time.

As my fellow panelists noted, it wasn’t that long ago that companies saw AI as something disruptive. Today, that mindset has flipped, though there is still a great deal of uncertainty about how to value AI businesses. Picking winners and losers in AI continues to be very difficult.

For that reason, the clearer AI opportunity right now isn’t limited to the technology; it’s also in the ecosystem supporting the buildout. We’re seeing opportunities across power generation and data centers, along with the construction materials, electrical equipment and infrastructure that support the growth of AI. The companies behind that infrastructure may not have the profile of the best-known AI names, but they offer clearer customers, more predictable risk profiles and fundamentals.

For corporate clients, the AI conversation inside their own businesses is becoming more practical, too. Companies are focused on productivity gains, adjacent opportunities and new revenue streams, while treating cybersecurity and data security as conditions of adoption from the start. In this part of the market, the advantage goes to those who know where the opportunity is most actionable and are ready to move when conditions align.