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New Year, Another New Normal? - Monthly Roundtable

FICC Podcasts December 07, 2021
FICC Podcasts December 07, 2021

 

Margaret Kerins along with Ian Lyngen, Greg Anderson, Stephen Gallo, Dan Krieter, Ben Reitzes, Dan Belton and Ben Jeffery from BMO’s FICC Macro Strategy team bring you their 2022 outlook for US & Canadian rates, high quality spreads and foreign exchange and the main narratives driving their forecasts.


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About Macro Horizons
BMO's Fixed Income, Currencies, and Commodities (FICC) Macro Strategy group led by Margaret Kerins and other special guests provide weekly and monthly updates on the FICC markets through three Macro Horizons channels; US Rates - The Week Ahead, Monthly Roundtable and High Quality Credit Spreads.

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Margaret Kerins:

This is Macro Horizon's monthly episode 35, 2022 Outlook: New year, Another New Normal? Presented by BMO Capital Markets. I'm your host Margaret Kerins here with Ian Lyngen, Greg Anderson, Steven Gallo, Dan Krieter, Ben Reitzes, Dan Belton, and Ben Jeffery from our FICC Macro Strategy Team to bring you our 2022 outlook for US and Canadian rates, high quality spreads, and foreign exchange, and the main narratives driving our forecasts. Each month members from BMO's FICC Macro Strategy Team join me for a round table focusing on relevant and timely topics that impact our markets.

Margaret Kerins:

Please feel free to reach out on Bloomberg or email me at margaret.kerins@bmo.com with questions, comments, or topics you would like to hear more about on future episodes. We value your input and appreciate your ideas and suggestions. Thanks for joining us.

Disclosure:

The views expressed here are those of the participants and not those of BMO Capital Markets, it's affiliates or subsidiaries.

Margaret Kerins:

As we look to the year ahead, the market narrative is shifting from monetary policy accommodation to tightening and from a robust US economic recovery to one that's likely to slow as the Fed acts to reign in inflation. Against this backdrop, the global recovery is likely to remain uneven as the pandemic lingers. Of course, most recently, we've seen a shift to a more traditional Fed reaction function to inflation, as the Fed has acknowledged that the upside risks to inflation are likely to outweigh the risks to employment. They are now willing to taper faster so that they can be prepared to lift off earlier if needed to maintain price stability and prevent higher inflation from becoming entrenched.

Margaret Kerins:

The uneven global impact of the pandemic intensifies the risk that supply chain disruptions and bottlenecks persist far longer than delaying a retreat in inflation. At the same time, the emergence of the most recent variant and the likelihood of future variants pose downside risks to the economic recovery as return to office efforts are pushed back. The Fed remains in the position of threading of very fine needle, slowing demand to contain inflation, but slowing it just enough to buy time for the supply and employment frictions to ease. Some aspects of the 2022 playbook will remain similar to 2021, as bouts of optimism in the US pushes 10s and 20s higher, only to rally due to an uneven global economic recovery as 10s remain the global safe haven flight to quality security.

Margaret Kerins:

However, we have the added element of risk as the Fed moves from accommodated monetary policy to most likely a tighter monetary policy. Let's kick it off with Ian. Ian, while the 2022 playbook might remain somewhat similar to 2021, we are certainly more bearish heading into the new year. How does this play out for you?

Ian Lyngen:

Yeah, Margaret. I do think that the year ahead is going to be defined by a much more bearish start to the year than we were anticipating in 2021. Part of that has to do with the realities of how far the US economy has improved over the course of the last year. We have more inflation back in the system. Real GDP continues to expand. And while real growth might shift to a lower gear in 2022, it will still be above the long run average. And this will keep the Treasury market on a bearish footing to start the year. One of the more nuanced aspects of our outlook that's worth highlighting is that we expect that during this cycle, this space previously occupied by the 10 year sector in so far as expressing the bearishness will be transferred to the five year sector.

Ian Lyngen:

The belly of the curve underperforming as we move into and through the tightening cycle has broader implications for the shape of the curve. Specifically, the flattening of 5s-30s that has already begun, that we expect will be thematic throughout the year. This is going to correspond with a transition from the debate about the timing of liftoff to the debate over the terminal rate for this cycle. As we make the rounds and talk to clients, we've already heard one camp decidedly anticipating 175 will be the terminal rate for the cycle, while the other camp suggests that three, 4% might be achievable. If nothing else, this is going to make the belly of the curve particularly volatile in the first half of the year.

Ben Jeffery:

And in thinking about that question, Ian, just looking back historically, this cycle is undoubtedly very different, not only given the unique nature of the economic shock of the pandemic, but also the amount of inflation that has resulted from the unprecedented amount of monetary and fiscal stimulus, and also the supply chain issues that have been so thematic over the past 18 months. In looking back at where the Fed has ultimately been able to reach in terms of terminal, I'm certainly sympathetic to this idea that the usual playbook in terms of raising policy rates may not be quite as applicable in this cycle, which leaves the performance of the 2s-5s curve especially topical in the event we start to get higher terminal assumptions making their way into valuations.

Ian Lyngen:

This also plays into one of our core risks for the year ahead, and that is an inversion of the 5s-10s curve. Now, historically, that hasn't inverted in any meaningful way. But if in fact our interpretation is correct, and what we see is that 5s absorb the brunt of the bearishness in the year ahead, we could very easily envision a situation where 5s-10s materially invert.

Margaret Kerins:

I think, Ian and Ben, you raised a few good points here. With regard to terminal rate, the very idea of allowing inflation to run above 2% was driven by the Fed's desire to have a terminal rate that was higher in order to have room to ease in the event of another downturn. During the last cycle, the Fed was able to achieve a terminal rate of 225 to 250 for several months. And then, of course, had to bring it back down to 175. What we're seeing right now in Fed messaging in the dot plot, of course, we're going to get another dot plot next week, but in the last dot plot is that the Fed expects the terminal rate to be 250. We've got these two camps, as you mentioned, which is quite inconsistent with what the Fed believes their appropriate monetary policy will achieve. How do we think about that?

Ian Lyngen:

Margaret, that's a fantastic point. And what I expect that we'll ultimately see is that the Fed itself doesn't know the terminal rate that they'll ultimately achieve. But rather, they will use the typical pattern of continuing to tighten monetary policy until something breaks. In practical terms, we'll be watching the equity market and the flow through between volatility and tighter financial conditions. The one thing that bodes well for the Fed to achieve a higher rate than it was able to last cycle is the fact that we're starting from extremely easy financial conditions. So if nothing else, the Fed has a bit of leeway between now and the point where we would expect to see financial conditions tighten to the point of concern.

Margaret Kerins:

Ian, you bring up another interesting point. The market has been ahead of the Fed with regard to expecting a faster taper and possibly sooner liftoff. We know in prior episodes that the Fed has reacted to equity market volatility because of the feedback loop concerns. Do you think that the Fed will be as sensitive to equity market volatility as they were in the past?

Ian Lyngen:

There's no question that the power put is alive and well. But this cycle, what we will see is that it's not the absolute amount of return ment in the equity market that matters for the Fed, but rather the pace at which it occurs. If next year the equity market is off 20% over the course of the year, the Fed will be content with that if it's an orderly move. If the equity market ends up being off 20% immediately following the liftoff rate, hike, that creates a different backdrop for the Fed. What I think will be notable is how it plays out in other markets. Credit, for example.

Dan Belton:

Given the recent backup in credit, credit spread indices are currently just a couple basis points inside of year to date highs. And after we get through this period of light liquidity into the holidays and the end of the year, we're expecting credit to get some stability in the first quarter of next year and potentially outperform at least modestly in the first quarter. There's a few reasons that we think that credit is going to perform well at the beginning of the year. The first being that the mark has already priced in a lot of bad news with respect to Fed policy and the likely trajectory of Fed liftoff.

Dan Belton:

We think that it's very likely that some of these Fed rate hike bets start to come off at the beginning of the year, or at least don't accelerate into a more hawkish projected path of hikes. The second being seasonals. Even though January tends to bring very heavy corporate supply, investors usually set up for this supply and January tends to be one of the seasonally most supportive months of the year. And third is dip buying. Once we get into January, there's going to be a lot of investors who have money to put to work and see credit spreads at levels that we haven't seen since the beginning of this year.

Dan Belton:

They're going to be willing to invest with credit spread indices around a hundred basis points, which we haven't seen since January of 2021. But while we're expecting some stability at the beginning of the year, it's unlikely that spreads are going to significantly retrace this widening and retest recent lows.

Dan Krieter:

Yeah, and I think this goes back to the question Ian was originally getting yet here is, what could cause a wobble and risk assets, both in credit spreads and in equity markets? And for me, that answer is a perhaps dimming outlook on corporate earnings around the midpoint of 2022. Now, the supply side story we all know quite well. And obviously if we're in an inflationary environment, which we're going to be for at least the first six months of the year, we've seen many times in the past inflation eat into corporate profit margins. For me, the real wild card is going to come on the demand side.

Dan Krieter:

Because for all the headlines that supply side bottlenecks have made this year, a demonstrable increase in demand is playing a very important role in inflation as well. The question becomes for me, is that demand a sustainable feature of the post-pandemic economy, or have we just seen an extraordinary deployment of savings that was cumulated during the pandemic as a result of asset price appreciation, fiscal stimulus, and frankly, the inability to consume during COVID lockdowns. I think we're going to get that question at least begin to be answered in 2022.

Dan Krieter:

And if we see the consumer perhaps weakening more than expected, if this is more attributable to a deployment to savings, then on the earnings front, you could have sort of a double impact, both from higher input prices that can't be passed along to the consumer in a meaningful way, eating into profit margin. I think a downturn in corporate earnings could be an impetus towards both wider credit spreads and potentially lower equity prices in 2022. That could be what ultimately derails the Fed.

Margaret Kerins:

Dan, you raised an interesting point in that the whole idea behind the Fed tightening is to slow demand. I think the question that you're raising really is, has the consumer demand reaction function to Fed tightening changed in the backdrop of the high savings rate?

Ian Lyngen:

Well, Margaret, as we saw during the beginning of the fourth quarter of 2021 when break evens were continuing to increase and set cycle highs, while the Fed funds futures market was bringing forward rate hike expectations, there was this moment where the market and investors believed that while the Fed might attempt to normalize monetary policy, they simply were not in a position to effectively offset the type of inflation that we are going to see, specifically related to supply constraints, bottlenecks, and largely supply side inflation, as opposed to true demand side inflation.

Ian Lyngen:

Now, we know that the Fed ultimately has the ability to hike the economy into a recession, but their willingness to do that, I think, was the bigger question until Powell's congressional testimony where he retired transitory and started talking about the prospects of increasing the pace of tapering. This reinforced for the market the Fed's willingness and ability to act, and that's where we saw break evens really start to drift back toward two and a quarter.

Margaret Kerins:

Ian, of course, consumer borrowing rates are driven by the front end. The Fed ultimately can control it. The implication on the risk side here is that they would have to raise by more than otherwise expected in this backdrop of high savings rate if demand is not as sensitive to early rate hikes as it's been in the past. Very interesting risk to ponder in the marketplace for the next year.

Dan Krieter:

And it's a very interesting thought, Margaret. And actually when I brought it up earlier, I wasn't necessarily implying that the reaction function between Fed policy and consumption was broken. Rather, I was laying out the potential for a scenario where consumption is going to drop regardless of Fed policy. Because savings rates have already returned back now to basically pre-pandemic levels here. It's been a straight line down over 2021 and we're back to what we would consider normal.

Dan Krieter:

I was raising the possibility that 2021, the increase in consumption was a one time extraordinary deployment of savings, where you're seeing people potentially buying that luxury item that they've always wanted or maybe more to the point of supply chain disruptions, living off their savings in this another new normal here, where we've seen people leave the workforce and not come back for reasons that have been somewhat hard to quantify. We saw extraordinary employment benefits run off in September, and we didn't see a rapid increase in labor force participation rate. Maybe hindsight's a bit 2020 on that. Maybe we shouldn't have been expecting it to be a one for one big time jump.

Dan Krieter:

Maybe it's actually people living off their savings, looking for a better career, or figuring out the optimal work life balance for them, whether that's from a working from home thing or one parent staying at home with kids, the other goes to work, people living off savings to figure out the best work life balance for them. And then labor force participation rate coming back higher into the end of 2021 and early 2022. For me, the part rate is going to be maybe what tells us what to expect on the consumption front.

Dan Krieter:

If we see the part rate continuing to increase after December print, where we saw a two tick increase in labor force participation rate, if that continues to increase in the first half of 2022, there's interpretation there that people are now have to return to the workforce to pay bills, to have income, and the savings are now officially depleted. We could see consumption drop, and then any Fed action to restrain demand only causes that consumption to drop further.

Margaret Kerins:

Yeah, and certainly the skills and geographic frictions take time to work out.

Ben Reitzes:

Dan, you talked about savings rates and excess savings and potential use of those savings, but the economist in me tells me what we should be watching. The savings rate itself is important, but the fact that it's still positive tells us the households still likely have savings in the bank waiting for us. They're not accumulating money like they were, but they also haven't necessarily spent all that money that they put in the bank. You can see that to some extent in deposit numbers. They have moved up a lot. A lot of that has gone into the stock market. It's gone into Bitcoin, no doubt, housing, other hard assets, for sure. But I think the fact that the savings rate has come down isn't necessarily a negative.

 

 

Ben Reitzes:

It just tells you that things are more normal, if you will, rather than necessarily to deteriorating or potentially deteriorating on the consumption front. I think it's important to capture that nuance in the savings rate. It's the stock versus the flow that's the key there.

Margaret Kerins:

Absolutely good point, Ben. One of the big questions that we've been getting recently, of course, is monetary policy convergence or divergence between the US and Canada. What's your outlook?

Ben Reitzes:

Well, Canada looks like they're going first here. The Fed has ramped up their hawkish talk, but the bank has already ended QE. And now the question is, how soon does the Bank of Canada raise rates? And when they get there, how quickly do they go? At this point, it looks like we're going to see something potentially early in the first half of the year out of the Bank of Canada. Maybe that gets delayed because of Omicron. Who knows? But it definitely looks as though they're poised to hike in the relatively near future. And at this stage, it seems to me that they're going to move initially pretty aggressively. They'll hike rates maybe two or three meetings a row, and then take stock of things.

Ben Reitzes:

Debt levels in Canada are still elevated. That's been a story for decades now. That hasn't gone away. The bank will want to take stock of where things are after they move rates higher. And then once the Fed joins the party, that gives them a license to continue to move rates higher, probably at a slower pace every quarter, every six months, depending on how the economy fares. But rates are certainly poised to move higher likely early in the new year in Canada. The one limiting factor for the Bank of Canada will be the Canadian dollar. That will determine how much faster the bank can raise rates relative to the Fed. Greg, maybe you can chime in on that one.

Greg Anderson:

Yeah. On the topic of different new normals or whatever, who would've thought a year ago that central banks could tighten aggressively and move way ahead of the Fed and have no punishment, so to speak, in their currency? We've seen that with the RB and Z raising rates and Kiwi having no upside to it. Similar with the Norges Bank. I think it shows that the Bank of Canada probably can follow that path and not have to worry about the currency running away from them. When we look back at 2021 just briefly, the first half of the year, the US dollar was I'll call it flattish. The second half of the year, as we have shifted to pricing and everybody raising rates, basically, in 2022, everybody except for Japan and Europe, the Fed tightening seems to have more gravity, so to speak.

Greg Anderson:

The dollar is up call it 6% since the June FOMC, and that kind of seemed to be like a real turning point. I think that dollar appreciation, it's a new normal that probably got another three to six to nine months more of life left in it. I would probably say the dollar stops appreciating on the second Fed rate hike or something like that. Because at that point, it's completely priced into the rhythm of markets. It's got more time to run.

 

Stephen Gallo:

Greg, I have a question for you. So in addition to monetary policy, another big factor for FX is the price of oil. What's your view on how that plays into the FX market next year?

Greg Anderson:

Great point, Stephen. And actually just to back up to 2021 for a second, the biggest move in G10FX kind of across the span, the CAD-Yen exchange rate. Loony's up 10% against the Yen, and this is a reflection of the price of oil practically doubled in 2021. I still think the price of oil's got much higher yet to go. The old normal, old, old normal 2011 to '14 or whatever was $100 barrel oil. I think it was a good chance that we could go back to that in 2022. And if so, this year's CAD-Yen move can happen again. Oil goes to $100 a barrel, CAD-Yen cross goes from where it's trading today, we'll call it 89 or something, also goes to 100.

Greg Anderson:

And similarly, there's downside pressure, not just on Yen, but on other countries that rely on imports for their energy like Europe, Stephen.

Stephen Gallo:

Yeah, thanks for the segue, Greg. I think Euro-dollar is going to take a stab at 110 before this cycle's over. Some of the fundamental of factors here to consider. We know economic growth in the Euro area is going to slow considerably next year. That should be the case in a number of major economies, but the Euro area has the added complication of an energy transition that's becoming more costly by the day, if you look at the soaring price of EU carbon permits. And it also has a high dependence on external demand. Now, that dependence on external demand is fine if we're an environment of globalization on, but I don't think we can use that characterization of the current backdrop.

Stephen Gallo:

Fuel prices are likely to keep shipping costs elevated for an extended period of time. Bottlenecks in some areas will probably carry over into next year, and many economies are rethinking some supply chains altogether. There is a risk that geopolitics plays an important role in diverting trade flows next year and beyond. The other factor to consider here is China. China's economic growth is likely to continue moderating next year as regulators cap leverage growth. But at the same time, in 2022 and 2023, the global economy is likely to start feeling the full effects of the Made in China 2025 and Xi Jinping's dual circulation strategies.

Stephen Gallo:

The gist, to keep the story short, the gist of both of these strategies is to decouple China from the rest of the world and make it less dependent on trade and less dependent on various imports. That's going to be a problem for the Euro area going forward. Now, into that mix, you also have to throw the energy security issue for the European Union, the potential for more volatility and gas prices over the winter, and geopolitical risk from Russian agitation in Eastern Europe. Look, I'll say it pretty bluntly. If Putin turns up the aggression considerably in Ukraine or threatens to withhold gas supplies to Europe, Euro-dollar is going to go a lot lower than 110. I can tell you that. That energy security risk discount in the Euro I think for some time to come.

Greg Anderson:

Hey, Stephen, in your list of reasons for being bearish on the Euro, I didn't hear you tick off the ECB.

Stephen Gallo:

Yeah, well, Greg, like many central banks, the ECB is in a difficult spot. But I think because of the role that it has played in safeguarding weaker sovereign credits, you have to magnify that difficulty a number of times for the ECB. I suspect the central bank in December is going to continue to pay lip service to rising inflation pressures, and perhaps that keeps a bit of upward pressure on front end Euro rates. But I suspect the ECB will avoid making firm commitments to ending QE as early as December, given all of the support these purchases provide for a number of weak or sovereign credits, like I just mentioned.

Margaret Kerins:

Thanks, Stephen and Greg. I think it's very interesting that some of these vulnerabilities in the energy sectors and the supply chains have been exposed. Not only Europe we'll be addressing those, but also in the United States as well. We've discussed a lot different topics today, and I don't want our bottom line outlook to get lost in the shuffle. Let's do a quick bottom line starting with Ian.

Ian Lyngen:

Yes. Our primary focus in the next six to eight months is going to be defining the upper bound of the range in 10 and 30 year yields. It will most likely occur in the first half of the year, driven by optimism associated with the continued progress toward reopening the US and global economy, and ultimately peak when the market fully prices in the of the terminal rate assumptions that are being refined over the course of the next few months. This opens the path for 10 year yields above 2%, even as high as two and a quarter, with the commensurate move further out the curve as 30s, while outperforming 5s, drift towards higher rates as well. A long bond target of 2% in the first half of next year is very reasonable. But again, we're watching the flattening of 5s-30s as the primary theme.

Dan Belton:

In high grade credit spread indices, we're looking for a range next year of around 90 to 125 basis points. We're looking for the lows of that range to be tested in the first quarter, and then spreads are going to subsequently run into some weakness in the second quarter and second half of next year.

Greg Anderson:

In FX, we're looking for the dollar to continue to trend higher, particularly in the first half of the year. It might tail off in the second half. In dollar-yen, we think it'll make a run at 120. And then in dollar-Canada, this year's range has been 120 to 129. Don't think it'll break. I think it will probably dribble down towards the middle of that range, so call it 124 or something like that middle of next year.

Stephen Gallo:

Bottom line, look to sell rallies in the Euro for the next one to three months. There are moderate upside risks to the Euro during periods of severe risk aversion in markets that could slow the pace of Euro weakness. We could also get a sharp move lower in oil prices, although that is not our base case. But ultimately, I think the fundamentals should keep the currency weak. You should look to sell rallies. In terms of interesting currency crosses, non-dollar crosses, Euro-China is I think likely to test the seven level before the cycle is over. And I think a portion of that move lower in Euro-China is structural and related to a decline in the Euro area's relative competitiveness.

Ben Reitzes:

In Canada, rate hikes are coming soon to a theater near you. The question is how aggressive the Bank of Canada is at the end of the day. We think they will move in at least two or three consecutive meetings, bringing rates to about 1% before pausing. That suggests near term that it's going to be tough to fight the broader flattening trend in rates.

Margaret Kerins:

Okay, and that's a wrap. As this is our final round table podcast of the year, I'd like to wish you a very happy holiday season. Thank you to all of our BMO experts and thank you for listening. This concludes Macro Horizons monthly episode 35, 2022 Outlook: New year, Another New Normal? As always, please reach out to us with feedback and any ideas on topics you'd like us to tackle. Thanks for listening to Macro Horizons. Please visit us at bmocm.com/macrohorizons. We'd like to hear what you thought of today's episode. You can send us an email at margaret.kerins@bmo.com. You can listen to the show and subscribe on Apple Podcasts or your favorite podcast provider.

Margaret Kerins:

And we'd appreciate it if you could take a moment to leave us a rating and a review. This show and resources are supported by our team here at BMO, including the FICC Macro Strategy Group and BMO's marketing team. This show is produced and edited by Puddle Creative.

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Margaret Kerins, CFA Head of FICC Macro Strategy
Ian Lyngen, CFA Managing Director, Head of U.S. Rates Strategy
Greg Anderson Global Head of FX Strategy
Stephen Gallo European Head of FX Strategy
Dan Krieter, CFA Director, Fixed Income Strategy
Benjamin Reitzes Managing Director, Canadian Rates & Macro Strategist
Dan Belton Vice President, Fixed Income Strategy, PHD
Ben Jeffery US Rates Strategist, Fixed Income Strategy

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