After a challenging 2023, much of the U.S. wine industry is expecting a rise in revenue this year, hoping that a rocky period of destocking will give way to a recovery, according to the 2024 BMO Wine Market Report. But wine businesses, focused on wealthy consumers for growth, will increasingly need to cater to the preferences of younger customers. As part of their growth strategies, wineries may need to take proactive steps to protect their business. 

 
Based on a comprehensive survey of wineries and an analysis of consumer data, the inaugural report is the result of the U.S. Wine Industry Partnership, a leading collaboration between BMO, bw166 and Gomberg, Fredrikson & Associates, WineBusiness Analytics, and Full Glass Research.

 
Wineries are cautiously optimistic.

• 71% of wineries expect 2024 revenue to increase vs 2023, though 22% expect revenue will be flat, and 6% expect a decline. 

• Winery inventories are returning to where they were in the years prior to the pandemic. 

 
Who's buying? Increasingly, younger and more diverse wine drinkers.

• Millennial, Gen Z and Gen X now comprise 61% of all wine drinkers, while Baby Boomers are still a significant portion of wine drinkers. 

• However, U.S. consumers 18-34 years old also tend to have a negative view of drinking, with 52% saying they think moderate drinking of alcohol is detrimental to health vs 39% of all U.S. consumers.

• Nevertheless, total U.S. consumption per capita of alcohol has actually remained stable since the mid-1990s. 

 
Willing to pay a premium to drink wine.

• Nearly 30% of wine consumers say they purchase a wine priced more than $20 monthly if not more often. 

• Over the past decade, all wines priced less than $10 in food stores have declined by more than 22% by volume.

• Retail sales of higher priced wines, more than $10 per 750ml bottle, have been stable and are likely to grow through the end of 2024 and into next year. 

 
Join the club: Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) sales are a key part of growth strategies.

• Nearly a quarter of all wineries are planning to increase wine club sales and expand wine club membership, and nearly 40% expect to increase direct sales. 

• 15% plan on increasing DTC sales as a portion of their total revenue.

• Wineries at low end of price spectrum: Focused on growth through increased wholesale sales or distribution.

• Wineries at high end of price spectrum: Focused on increasing their club business. 

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