Inflation: Where Next?
Inflation: Where Next?
Director and Senior Economist
Sal has two decades experience as a macro economist. With BMO Financial Group since 1994, his main responsibilities include analyzing and forecasting the U.S. and...
Chief Economist
Douglas has over 30 years of experience analyzing global economies and financial markets. As chief economist at BMO Financial Group, he oversees the macroeconomic...
Managing Director, Deputy Chief Economist and Head of U.S. Economics
Michael Gregory is Deputy Chief Economist and Head of U.S. Economics for BMO Capital Markets. He manages the team responsible for forecasting and analyzing the No...
Managing Director, Canadian Rates & Macro Strategist
Benjamin has been with the Bank of Montreal for over a decade. He is responsible for the Canadian macro-economic forecast, and plays a key role in forecasting int...
Sal has two decades experience as a macro economist. With BMO Financial Group since 1994, his main responsibilities include analyzing and forecasting the U.S. and...
VIEW FULL PROFILEDouglas has over 30 years of experience analyzing global economies and financial markets. As chief economist at BMO Financial Group, he oversees the macroeconomic...
VIEW FULL PROFILEMichael Gregory is Deputy Chief Economist and Head of U.S. Economics for BMO Capital Markets. He manages the team responsible for forecasting and analyzing the No...
VIEW FULL PROFILEBenjamin has been with the Bank of Montreal for over a decade. He is responsible for the Canadian macro-economic forecast, and plays a key role in forecasting int...
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Robert has been with the Bank of Montreal since 2006. He plays a key role in analyzing Canadian regional economic, fiscal and real estate trends. Robert regularly...
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Jennifer has been with BMO Capital Markets Economics for over two decades and is perhaps best known for her high-frequency data analysis on key U.S. economic rele...
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Priscilla joined BMO Capital Markets in 2016 and plays a key role in analyzing Canadian household trends and the U.S. regional economy. She also contributes to th...
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“We have an expectation that inflation will peak and begin to come down this year. To the extent inflation comes in higher or is more persistently high… we would be prepared to move more aggressively by raising the federal funds rate by more than 25 basis points at a meeting or meetings.” — Fed Chair Powell, March 2, 2022
High inflation poses a major threat to the economic expansion, perhaps the largest since the 1970s. In the U.S., it’s hard to keep track of the many forces driving inflation to 40-year peaks—from surging fuel and food costs to rising wages and house prices, to name a few. The Russia-Ukraine war has only turned up the heat by juicing resource prices and snarling supply chains further. To wade through the fog, we employ our in-house equation for U.S. consumer prices to assess what the major forces mean for the outlook. Spoiler alert: while inflation will likely retreat, it should also stay high enough to make the Fed sweat.
