North American Outlook: Sticking the (Soft) Landing
North American Outlook: Sticking the (Soft) Landing
Director and Senior Economist
Sal Guatieri is a Senior Economist and Director at BMO Capital Markets, with three decades experience as a macro economist. With BMO since 1994, his main responsibi…
Sal Guatieri is a Senior Economist and Director at BMO Capital Markets, with three decades experience as a macro economist. With BMO since 1994, his main responsibi…
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We recently shifted to the soft-landing camp, as the broad strength shown in the Q2 GDP release convinced us that the U.S. economy is more durable than expected. Not only is it not slowing further, it might be picking up. Growth has held at or above long-run potential of around 2% for four straight quarters, and looks to have picked up further in Q3. Spending by consumers, governments and businesses is still motoring with minimal sign of fatigue. Although residential construction has continued to contract, it carries less weight in the economy (under 4%) and appears to have found a floor, with construction spending on new homes turning up recently. New home sales have also improved due to a dearth of listings in the resale market, which, along with the worst affordability in 37 years, is depressing existing home sales.
